This week in preparation for my class I watched a two part
series called, The New Economic Reality: Demographic Winter. This documentary
covered a lot of interesting statistics about birth rates around the
world. It discussed what factors into
these rates and what some of the projected outcomes of lower birth rates will
be. It was very interesting to consider what the future of our nation and the
world may look like if the birth rates continue to drop as they have over the
past few decades. I loved that it
discussed not only the numbers themselves but some of the underlying causes. It
seems as if the media focuses more on population growth and over population. However, from this documentary we learn that
in reality, the world is functioning at a sub-replacement fertility rate. Fertility rate is a better determination than
birthrate. For the world population to replace itself, the fertility rate,
which is the average number of children born over the lifetime of the average
woman, must be 2.13. The world fertility rate in 1960 was 5, in 2014 it was
2.43 and dropping. If you look at the
U.S at 1.89, the U.K. at 1.89, Canada 1.6, most of Europe between 1.4 and 1.89
you see that we may have a problem! If
you look at South America it is just as bad with Chile and Brazil at 1.8. The only places where the fertility rates are
consistently higher that 2.13 are African nations and the Middle East and even
those are dropping at an alarming rate.
The thing that I was most fascinated by was the economic
effects of a lower or sub-replacement fertility rate. I was aware of the problems concerning the
aging baby boomer population and the loss of that work force and their support
of systems such as social security. But
I had never really taken it any further than that! Why? I
don't know, it makes so much sense! But
simply a higher world fertility rate will not solve the future economic
problems. We need to do more than simply replace people. We need to replace
what is called Human Capital—the knowledge, skills and information people have
and contribute to society. The capacity
a child has to be valuable to the marketplace!
We need to replace the innovators, the scholars, all those who contribute
to economic growth.
This information spoke to me. I love that the Proclamation
on the Family is so clear that the “commandment to multiply and replenish the
earth remains in force.” I love that
this proclamation was given 21 years ago this weekend. It is a powerful witness to me that our
Heavenly Father is aware of us and that he has Prophets that are watchmen on
the tower to warn us and protect us!
